JUNK RUNTAH

Around the Bases in 2007 and 1987

Around the Bases in 2007 and 1987

Last week in my column at Baseball Prospectus I revealed the 2007 numbers in my five baserunning metrics. Somewhat suprisingly Juan Pierre took the top spot at +11.47 runs by recording positive values in all five categories but doing especially well in runs on stolen bases (EqSBR) and advancing on hits (EqHAR). Together those accounted for over nine runs with EqSBR at +3.93 and EqHAR at +5.09. Other leaders included Luis Castillo (+9.41), Coco Crisp (+8.60), Brian Roberts (+8.43), and Jose Reyes (+7.90). Readers of the original article will note that there Castillo was credited with +8.42. However, upon further inspection his EqOAR (other advancement including wild pitches, passed balls, and balks) was incorrect dues to overcounting his opportunities because of his playing for both the Twins and Mets and so that went up from 2.78 to 3.77.

On the other end of the spectrum the Tribes Ryan Garko recorded a -8.83, -7.25 coming on hit advancement by virtue of being thrown out five times (most in the majors) but otherwise not advancing very frequently. His poor showing in that metric easily bested the previous low set by Pat Burrell in 2005 (-5.60).

As mentioned in the article these are essentially counting statistics and so the number of opportunities does matter. For that reason I also have rate statistics for these metrics that Ill break out again in a future column. Also look for team results at that time as well.

Although I havent run the numbers for all Retrosheet seasons, in honor of the 2007 numbers I thought Id take a look back 20 years and run the 1987 top and bottom 20.

Name Opps EqGAR Opps EqSBR Opps EqAAR Opps EqHAR Opps EqOAR EqRuns
Vince Coleman 59 2.41 140 6.55 50 1.74 56 2.39 406 0.83 13.92
Willie Wilson 60 0.41 69 7.06 39 0.08 36 3.90 369 0.70 12.15
Tim Raines 31 -0.41 56 6.92 34 0.41 48 2.38 390 0.91 10.21
Tony Gwynn 52 0.26 65 1.95 40 1.35 58 3.54 458 2.34 9.44
Eric Davis 36 1.23 58 2.59 20 0.81 24 2.14 248 1.17 7.94
Lenny Dykstra 38 1.86 35 2.58 33 0.53 37 1.36 272 1.35 7.68
Ozzie Smith 50 0.82 50 2.28 53 1.61 66 2.48 522 0.18 7.37
Ozzie Guillen 43 1.77 34 0.80 27 0.60 23 2.05 299 1.99 7.20
Milt Thompson 38 1.26 57 3.11 28 0.68 37 1.28 336 0.86 7.19
Luis Polonia 29 1.44 37 1.74 34 0.17 32 2.94 319 0.86 7.15
Joe Carter 25 1.04 38 2.89 26 0.51 21 1.22 262 1.25 6.90
Phil Bradley 51 -0.28 49 2.91 43 0.60 43 -0.07 451 3.63 6.80
Billy Hatcher 35 0.25 69 2.69 41 1.04 24 2.64 355 -0.12 6.50
Gary Redus 39 0.49 64 4.15 28 0.78 35 1.35 286 -0.62 6.16
Oddibe McDowell 32 1.01 28 3.84 24 0.93 25 -0.34 224 0.37 5.81
Lou Whitaker 49 -0.44 20 -0.08 36 0.20 57 1.67 432 3.83 5.18
Steve Sax 47 0.71 49 2.33 44 0.10 44 2.15 376 -0.27 5.01
Dick Schofield 33 0.60 22 2.53 17 0.08 15 0.73 261 0.50 4.45
Ellis Burks 38 0.79 33 1.87 41 -0.01 40 1.28 345 0.27 4.20
Paul Molitor 34 -0.35 58 5.11 0 0.00 0 0.00 332 -0.63 4.13
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Terry Pendleton 35 0.60 30 -4.23 29 -0.96 38 0.65 352 -0.12 -4.06
Alvin Davis 26 0.00 1 -0.23 30 -0.81 41 -2.25 340 -0.81 -4.10
Alfredo Griffin 20 -1.05 42 -2.46 28 0.74 30 -0.42 238 -0.95 -4.14
Shane Mack 15 -0.09 11 -3.27 4 -1.00 17 -0.19 132 0.20 -4.35
Bo Diaz 34 -1.48 1 0.16 13 -0.67 32 -1.68 220 -0.75 -4.41
Eddie Murray 28 -0.46 4 -1.51 35 -1.81 25 0.06 340 -0.79 -4.51
Harold Baines 13 -0.60 0 0.00 20 -0.16 34 -3.48 285 -0.49 -4.74
Keith Moreland 21 -0.50 6 -2.15 17 -0.56 33 -0.40 238 -1.18 -4.79
A Galarraga 32 -0.70 17 -3.37 18 -0.16 29 -0.30 277 -0.28 -4.81
Casey Candaele 37 0.14 18 -4.61 35 0.71 49 -0.69 310 -0.52 -4.97
Mike Young 20 -0.60 18 -2.67 23 0.29 7 -1.24 197 -0.77 -4.99
Benito Santiago 28 0.30 34 -2.17 12 -0.11 29 -2.64 251 -0.43 -5.05
Dave Parker 24 0.18 11 -0.88 28 -0.19 37 -4.11 265 -0.07 -5.07
Mike Kingery 28 -0.90 17 -3.02 19 0.06 21 -0.54 188 -0.75 -5.16
Carlton Fisk 17 -0.47 5 -2.25 27 -0.55 37 -1.29 234 -0.79 -5.35
Joey Cora 27 0.02 26 -2.66 13 -1.51 20 -0.50 150 -0.88 -5.53
Keith Hernandez 13 -0.30 2 -1.03 29 -0.36 41 -3.89 356 -0.10 -5.67
Mike Pagliarulo 29 -0.50 5 -1.78 18 -1.35 25 -1.44 239 -0.68 -5.76
Cal Ripken 24 -0.43 8 -1.50 24 -1.64 29 -1.14 330 -1.15 -5.85
Will Clark 30 -1.23 22 -8.41 22 -0.35 42 1.81 284 0.90 -7.28

Not surprisingly Vince Coleman takes the top spot at +13.92 runs largely powered by his 109 stolen bases in 131 attempts. But he also scored well in all other categories. Both Willie Wilson and Tim Raines crack 10 plus runs with great stolen base percentages (Wilson at 59 steals in 70 attempts and Raines at 50 of 55) and their advancement on hits. Many of the others in the top 20 arent big surprises although Lou Whitaker and Phil Bradley are both there courtesy of advancement on wild pitches, passed balls, and walks that while reflecting some skill, is more prone to small samples and luck than advancing on hits.

On the flip side Will Clark is down over seven runs despite doing decently in many of the metrics. His -8.41 in stolen base runs was the killer as he was caught stealing no less than 17 times in 22 opportunities and remarkably was caught stealing twice at home and three times at third base. Perhaps some of those were broken hit and run plays but one would think that either Clark himself or Roger Craig would have given up the strategy at some point. The others on the bottom are pretty much what you might expect as well with Mike Pagliarulo, Cal Ripken, Carlton Fisk, Eddie Murray, Harold Baines, Keith Moreland, and Andres Galarraga all making an appearance.

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